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A company manufactures scooters at two p...

A company manufactures scooters at two plants, A and B. Plant A produces 80% and plant B produces 20% of the total product. 85% of the scooters produced at plant A and 65% of the scooters produced at plant B are of standard quality. A scooter produced by the company is selected at random and it is found to be of standard quality. What is the probability that it was manufactured at plant A?

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To solve the problem, we will use Bayes' Theorem, which allows us to find the probability of an event based on prior knowledge of conditions related to the event. ### Step-by-Step Solution: 1. **Define the Events**: - Let \( A \) be the event that a scooter is manufactured at Plant A. - Let \( B \) be the event that a scooter is manufactured at Plant B. - Let \( S \) be the event that a scooter is of standard quality. 2. **Given Probabilities**: - \( P(A) = 0.8 \) (80% of scooters are from Plant A) - \( P(B) = 0.2 \) (20% of scooters are from Plant B) - \( P(S|A) = 0.85 \) (85% of scooters from Plant A are of standard quality) - \( P(S|B) = 0.65 \) (65% of scooters from Plant B are of standard quality) 3. **Find \( P(S) \)**: - We need to calculate the total probability of selecting a standard quality scooter, \( P(S) \): \[ P(S) = P(S|A) \cdot P(A) + P(S|B) \cdot P(B) \] Substituting the values: \[ P(S) = (0.85 \cdot 0.8) + (0.65 \cdot 0.2) \] \[ P(S) = 0.68 + 0.13 = 0.81 \] 4. **Apply Bayes' Theorem**: - We want to find \( P(A|S) \), the probability that a scooter is from Plant A given that it is of standard quality: \[ P(A|S) = \frac{P(S|A) \cdot P(A)}{P(S)} \] Substituting the known values: \[ P(A|S) = \frac{0.85 \cdot 0.8}{0.81} \] \[ P(A|S) = \frac{0.68}{0.81} \] 5. **Calculate the Final Probability**: - Now we calculate \( \frac{0.68}{0.81} \): \[ P(A|S) \approx 0.8395 \] ### Conclusion: The probability that a randomly selected scooter of standard quality was manufactured at Plant A is approximately \( 0.8395 \) or \( 83.95\% \).

To solve the problem, we will use Bayes' Theorem, which allows us to find the probability of an event based on prior knowledge of conditions related to the event. ### Step-by-Step Solution: 1. **Define the Events**: - Let \( A \) be the event that a scooter is manufactured at Plant A. - Let \( B \) be the event that a scooter is manufactured at Plant B. - Let \( S \) be the event that a scooter is of standard quality. ...
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