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A cadiadate has to reach the examination...

A cadiadate has to reach the examination centre in time, Probality of him going by bus or scooter or by other means of transport are `(3)/(10),(1)/(10) ,(3)/(5)` respectively. The probability of getting late , if the travels by bus is 1/4 ,1/3 if he travells by scooter and 0 for any other medium. But he reaches in time if the uses any mode of transport . He reached late at the centre. The probability that he travelled by bus is -

A

`(1)/(9)`

B

`(2)/(13)`

C

`(9)/(13)`

D

None of these

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To solve the problem step by step, we will use the concept of conditional probability and the law of total probability. ### Step 1: Define Events Let: - \( A \): Event that the candidate travels by bus. - \( B \): Event that the candidate travels by scooter. - \( C \): Event that the candidate travels by other means. - \( E \): Event that the candidate is late. ### Step 2: Given Probabilities From the problem, we have the following probabilities: - \( P(A) = \frac{3}{10} \) (Probability of traveling by bus) - \( P(B) = \frac{1}{10} \) (Probability of traveling by scooter) - \( P(C) = \frac{3}{5} \) (Probability of traveling by other means) ### Step 3: Calculate Total Probability Since the total probability must equal 1, we can check: \[ P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = \frac{3}{10} + \frac{1}{10} + \frac{3}{5} = \frac{3}{10} + \frac{1}{10} + \frac{6}{10} = 1 \] This confirms the probabilities are correct. ### Step 4: Given Conditional Probabilities of Being Late We also have the conditional probabilities of being late: - \( P(E|A) = \frac{1}{4} \) (Probability of being late given he travels by bus) - \( P(E|B) = \frac{1}{3} \) (Probability of being late given he travels by scooter) - \( P(E|C) = 0 \) (Probability of being late given he travels by other means) ### Step 5: Use the Law of Total Probability We need to find the total probability of being late \( P(E) \): \[ P(E) = P(A) \cdot P(E|A) + P(B) \cdot P(E|B) + P(C) \cdot P(E|C) \] Substituting the values: \[ P(E) = \left(\frac{3}{10} \cdot \frac{1}{4}\right) + \left(\frac{1}{10} \cdot \frac{1}{3}\right) + \left(\frac{3}{5} \cdot 0\right) \] Calculating each term: \[ P(E) = \frac{3}{40} + \frac{1}{30} + 0 \] ### Step 6: Find a Common Denominator To add \( \frac{3}{40} \) and \( \frac{1}{30} \), we find the least common multiple of 40 and 30, which is 120. \[ \frac{3}{40} = \frac{3 \times 3}{40 \times 3} = \frac{9}{120} \] \[ \frac{1}{30} = \frac{1 \times 4}{30 \times 4} = \frac{4}{120} \] Now, adding these: \[ P(E) = \frac{9}{120} + \frac{4}{120} = \frac{13}{120} \] ### Step 7: Find the Probability of Traveling by Bus Given Late We want to find \( P(A|E) \) using Bayes' theorem: \[ P(A|E) = \frac{P(E|A) \cdot P(A)}{P(E)} \] Substituting the values: \[ P(A|E) = \frac{P(E|A) \cdot P(A)}{P(E)} = \frac{\left(\frac{1}{4}\right) \cdot \left(\frac{3}{10}\right)}{\frac{13}{120}} \] Calculating the numerator: \[ \frac{1}{4} \cdot \frac{3}{10} = \frac{3}{40} \] Now substituting: \[ P(A|E) = \frac{\frac{3}{40}}{\frac{13}{120}} = \frac{3}{40} \cdot \frac{120}{13} = \frac{3 \cdot 3}{13} = \frac{9}{13} \] ### Final Answer Thus, the probability that he traveled by bus given that he reached late is: \[ \boxed{\frac{9}{13}} \]

To solve the problem step by step, we will use the concept of conditional probability and the law of total probability. ### Step 1: Define Events Let: - \( A \): Event that the candidate travels by bus. - \( B \): Event that the candidate travels by scooter. - \( C \): Event that the candidate travels by other means. - \( E \): Event that the candidate is late. ...
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