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Two urns A and B contain 6 black and 4 w...

Two urns A and B contain 6 black and 4 white, 4 black and 6 white balls respectively. Two balls are drawn from one of the urns. If both the balls drawn are white, find the probability that the balls are drawn from urn B.

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To solve the problem, we will use Bayes' theorem. We need to find the probability that the balls drawn are from urn B given that both balls drawn are white. ### Step 1: Define Events Let: - \( E_1 \): Event that urn A is chosen. - \( E_2 \): Event that urn B is chosen. - \( W \): Event that both balls drawn are white. ### Step 2: Calculate Prior Probabilities Since we have two urns and we choose one at random: \[ P(E_1) = P(E_2) = \frac{1}{2} \] ### Step 3: Calculate Probability of Drawing Two White Balls from Each Urn 1. **For urn A** (which has 6 black and 4 white balls): - Total balls = 10 - Probability of drawing 2 white balls: \[ P(W | E_1) = \frac{\text{Number of ways to choose 2 white from 4}}{\text{Total ways to choose 2 from 10}} = \frac{\binom{4}{2}}{\binom{10}{2}} = \frac{6}{45} = \frac{2}{15} \] 2. **For urn B** (which has 4 black and 6 white balls): - Total balls = 10 - Probability of drawing 2 white balls: \[ P(W | E_2) = \frac{\text{Number of ways to choose 2 white from 6}}{\text{Total ways to choose 2 from 10}} = \frac{\binom{6}{2}}{\binom{10}{2}} = \frac{15}{45} = \frac{1}{3} \] ### Step 4: Calculate Total Probability of Drawing Two White Balls Using the law of total probability: \[ P(W) = P(W | E_1)P(E_1) + P(W | E_2)P(E_2) \] Substituting the values: \[ P(W) = \left(\frac{2}{15} \cdot \frac{1}{2}\right) + \left(\frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{1}{2}\right) \] Calculating each term: \[ = \frac{2}{30} + \frac{5}{30} = \frac{7}{30} \] ### Step 5: Apply Bayes' Theorem We want to find \( P(E_2 | W) \): \[ P(E_2 | W) = \frac{P(W | E_2)P(E_2)}{P(W)} \] Substituting the values: \[ P(E_2 | W) = \frac{\left(\frac{1}{3}\right) \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)}{\frac{7}{30}} = \frac{\frac{1}{6}}{\frac{7}{30}} = \frac{30}{42} = \frac{5}{7} \] ### Final Answer The probability that the balls drawn are from urn B given that both balls drawn are white is: \[ \boxed{\frac{5}{7}} \]
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