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A box contains 3 coins B(1), B(2),B(3) a...

A box contains 3 coins `B_(1), B_(2),B_(3)` and the probability of getting heads on the coins are `(1)/(2), (1)/(4),(1)/(8)` respectively. If one of the coins is selected at random and tossed for 3 times and exactly 3 times and exactly 3 heads appeared, then the probability that it was coin `B_(1)` is

A

`(9)/(73)`

B

`(10)/(73)`

C

`(36)/(73)`

D

`(64)/(73)`

Text Solution

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The correct Answer is:
To solve the problem, we will use Bayes' Theorem. We need to find the probability that coin \( B_1 \) was selected given that we observed 3 heads in 3 tosses. ### Step 1: Define the events Let: - \( A \) be the event that we selected coin \( B_1 \). - \( B \) be the event that we got 3 heads in 3 tosses. ### Step 2: Find the prior probabilities The probability of selecting each coin is: - \( P(A) = P(B_1) = \frac{1}{3} \) - \( P(B_2) = \frac{1}{3} \) - \( P(B_3) = \frac{1}{3} \) ### Step 3: Calculate the probability of getting 3 heads for each coin - For coin \( B_1 \): The probability of heads is \( \frac{1}{2} \). \[ P(B | A) = \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^3 = \frac{1}{8} \] - For coin \( B_2 \): The probability of heads is \( \frac{1}{4} \). \[ P(B | B_2) = \left(\frac{1}{4}\right)^3 = \frac{1}{64} \] - For coin \( B_3 \): The probability of heads is \( \frac{1}{8} \). \[ P(B | B_3) = \left(\frac{1}{8}\right)^3 = \frac{1}{512} \] ### Step 4: Calculate the total probability of getting 3 heads Using the law of total probability: \[ P(B) = P(B | A) P(A) + P(B | B_2) P(B_2) + P(B | B_3) P(B_3) \] Substituting the values: \[ P(B) = \left(\frac{1}{8} \cdot \frac{1}{3}\right) + \left(\frac{1}{64} \cdot \frac{1}{3}\right) + \left(\frac{1}{512} \cdot \frac{1}{3}\right) \] Calculating each term: \[ P(B) = \frac{1}{24} + \frac{1}{192} + \frac{1}{1536} \] Finding a common denominator (which is 1536): \[ P(B) = \frac{64}{1536} + \frac{8}{1536} + \frac{1}{1536} = \frac{73}{1536} \] ### Step 5: Apply Bayes' Theorem Now we apply Bayes' Theorem to find \( P(A | B) \): \[ P(A | B) = \frac{P(B | A) P(A)}{P(B)} \] Substituting the known values: \[ P(A | B) = \frac{\left(\frac{1}{8}\right) \left(\frac{1}{3}\right)}{\frac{73}{1536}} \] Calculating the numerator: \[ P(A | B) = \frac{\frac{1}{24}}{\frac{73}{1536}} = \frac{1536}{24 \cdot 73} = \frac{64}{73} \] ### Final Answer Thus, the probability that it was coin \( B_1 \) given that we got 3 heads is: \[ \boxed{\frac{64}{73}} \]
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