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Dice A has 4 red and 2 white faces where...

Dice A has 4 red and 2 white faces whereas dice B has 3 red and 3 white faces. A coin is tossed once, if it falls head then the game continues by throwing the dice A and if it falls tail then the dice B is to be used. If red turns up at first 3 throws, then the probability that dice A is being used is

A

`(7)/(37)`

B

`(64)/(91)`

C

`(9)/(41)`

D

`(27)/(35)`

Text Solution

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The correct Answer is:
To solve the problem, we need to find the probability that Dice A is being used given that red has turned up in the first three throws. We will use Bayes' Theorem for this calculation. ### Step-by-step Solution: 1. **Define Events**: - Let \( A \) be the event that Dice A is used. - Let \( B \) be the event that Dice B is used. - Let \( R \) be the event that red turns up in the first three throws. 2. **Prior Probabilities**: - The probability of selecting Dice A or Dice B after tossing the coin is: \[ P(A) = P(B) = \frac{1}{2} \] 3. **Calculate Probabilities of Red for Each Die**: - For Dice A (4 red and 2 white): \[ P(R|A) = \left(\frac{4}{6}\right)^3 = \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^3 = \frac{8}{27} \] - For Dice B (3 red and 3 white): \[ P(R|B) = \left(\frac{3}{6}\right)^3 = \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^3 = \frac{1}{8} \] 4. **Apply Bayes' Theorem**: - According to Bayes' Theorem: \[ P(A|R) = \frac{P(R|A) \cdot P(A)}{P(R|A) \cdot P(A) + P(R|B) \cdot P(B)} \] - Substitute the values: \[ P(A|R) = \frac{\frac{8}{27} \cdot \frac{1}{2}}{\frac{8}{27} \cdot \frac{1}{2} + \frac{1}{8} \cdot \frac{1}{2}} \] 5. **Simplify the Denominator**: - Calculate \( P(R|A) \cdot P(A) + P(R|B) \cdot P(B) \): \[ P(R|A) \cdot P(A) = \frac{8}{27} \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \frac{8}{54} \] \[ P(R|B) \cdot P(B) = \frac{1}{8} \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{16} \] - Find a common denominator (which is 432): \[ \frac{8}{54} = \frac{64}{432}, \quad \frac{1}{16} = \frac{27}{432} \] - Thus, the denominator becomes: \[ \frac{64}{432} + \frac{27}{432} = \frac{91}{432} \] 6. **Final Calculation**: - Now substitute back into the formula: \[ P(A|R) = \frac{\frac{8}{54}}{\frac{91}{432}} = \frac{8 \cdot 432}{54 \cdot 91} \] - Simplifying gives: \[ P(A|R) = \frac{3456}{4914} \] - This simplifies to: \[ P(A|R) = \frac{64}{91} \] ### Final Answer: The probability that Dice A is being used given that red has turned up in the first three throws is: \[ \boxed{\frac{64}{91}} \]
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