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In a bombing attack , there is 50% chanc...

In a bombing attack , there is 50% chance that a bomb will hit target . At least two independent hits are required to destroy the target completely. Then the minimum number of bombs, that must be dropped to ensure that there is at least 90% chance of completely destroying the target , is ________

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To solve the problem, we need to determine the minimum number of bombs \( n \) that must be dropped to ensure at least a 90% chance of completely destroying the target, given that each bomb has a 50% chance of hitting the target. ### Step-by-step Solution: 1. **Define the probabilities**: - Let \( P \) be the probability of a bomb hitting the target, which is \( P = 0.5 \). - Let \( Q \) be the probability of a bomb not hitting the target, which is \( Q = 1 - P = 0.5 \). 2. **Determine the required condition**: - We need at least 2 hits to destroy the target. Therefore, we want the probability of getting at least 2 hits to be at least 90%. - Mathematically, this can be expressed as: \[ P(X \geq 2) \geq 0.9 \] - This can be rewritten using the complement: \[ 1 - P(X < 2) \geq 0.9 \] - Which simplifies to: \[ P(X < 2) \leq 0.1 \] 3. **Calculate \( P(X < 2) \)**: - The event \( X < 2 \) includes the cases where \( X = 0 \) and \( X = 1 \): \[ P(X < 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) \] - Using the binomial distribution: \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} P^k Q^{n-k} \] - Therefore: \[ P(X = 0) = \binom{n}{0} (0.5)^0 (0.5)^n = (0.5)^n \] \[ P(X = 1) = \binom{n}{1} (0.5)^1 (0.5)^{n-1} = n \cdot (0.5)^n \] - Thus: \[ P(X < 2) = (0.5)^n + n \cdot (0.5)^n = (0.5)^n (1 + n) \] 4. **Set up the inequality**: - We need: \[ (0.5)^n (1 + n) \leq 0.1 \] - Rearranging gives: \[ 2^n (1 + n) \geq 10 \] 5. **Trial and error to find the minimum \( n \)**: - Let's test values for \( n \): - For \( n = 6 \): \[ 2^6 (1 + 6) = 64 \cdot 7 = 448 \quad (\text{which is } > 10) \] - For \( n = 7 \): \[ 2^7 (1 + 7) = 128 \cdot 8 = 1024 \quad (\text{which is } > 10) \] - For \( n = 5 \): \[ 2^5 (1 + 5) = 32 \cdot 6 = 192 \quad (\text{which is } > 10) \] - For \( n = 4 \): \[ 2^4 (1 + 4) = 16 \cdot 5 = 80 \quad (\text{which is } > 10) \] - For \( n = 3 \): \[ 2^3 (1 + 3) = 8 \cdot 4 = 32 \quad (\text{which is } > 10) \] - For \( n = 2 \): \[ 2^2 (1 + 2) = 4 \cdot 3 = 12 \quad (\text{which is } > 10) \] - For \( n = 1 \): \[ 2^1 (1 + 1) = 2 \cdot 2 = 4 \quad (\text{which is } < 10) \] 6. **Conclusion**: - The minimum number of bombs that must be dropped to ensure at least a 90% chance of destroying the target is \( n = 7 \). ### Final Answer: The minimum number of bombs that must be dropped is **7**.
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