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There are two bags I and IL Bag I contai...

There are two bags I and IL Bag I contains 3 white and 4 black balls, and bag II contains 5 white and 6 black balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and is found to be white. Find the probability that it was drawn from bag I.

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To solve the problem, we will use Bayes' Theorem. We need to find the probability that the ball was drawn from Bag I given that the ball drawn is white. ### Step 1: Define Events Let: - \( A_1 \): The event that the ball is drawn from Bag I. - \( A_2 \): The event that the ball is drawn from Bag II. - \( B \): The event that the ball drawn is white. ### Step 2: Calculate Prior Probabilities Since there are two bags, the probability of choosing either bag is: - \( P(A_1) = \frac{1}{2} \) - \( P(A_2) = \frac{1}{2} \) ### Step 3: Calculate Conditional Probabilities Next, we need to find the probability of drawing a white ball from each bag: - For Bag I: There are 3 white balls and 4 black balls, so the total number of balls is \( 3 + 4 = 7 \). \[ P(B | A_1) = \frac{3}{7} \] - For Bag II: There are 5 white balls and 6 black balls, so the total number of balls is \( 5 + 6 = 11 \). \[ P(B | A_2) = \frac{5}{11} \] ### Step 4: Calculate Total Probability of Drawing a White Ball Using the law of total probability, we can find \( P(B) \): \[ P(B) = P(B | A_1) \cdot P(A_1) + P(B | A_2) \cdot P(A_2) \] Substituting the values we calculated: \[ P(B) = \left(\frac{3}{7} \cdot \frac{1}{2}\right) + \left(\frac{5}{11} \cdot \frac{1}{2}\right) \] \[ P(B) = \frac{3}{14} + \frac{5}{22} \] To add these fractions, we need a common denominator. The least common multiple of 14 and 22 is 154. Thus, we convert the fractions: \[ P(B) = \frac{3 \cdot 11}{154} + \frac{5 \cdot 7}{154} = \frac{33 + 35}{154} = \frac{68}{154} \] ### Step 5: Apply Bayes' Theorem Now we can apply Bayes' Theorem to find \( P(A_1 | B) \): \[ P(A_1 | B) = \frac{P(B | A_1) \cdot P(A_1)}{P(B)} \] Substituting the known values: \[ P(A_1 | B) = \frac{\left(\frac{3}{7}\right) \cdot \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)}{\frac{68}{154}} \] This simplifies to: \[ P(A_1 | B) = \frac{\frac{3}{14}}{\frac{68}{154}} = \frac{3}{14} \cdot \frac{154}{68} = \frac{3 \cdot 11}{68} = \frac{33}{68} \] ### Final Answer Thus, the probability that the ball was drawn from Bag I given that it is white is: \[ \boxed{\frac{33}{68}} \]
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