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There are three coins. One is a two head...

There are three coins. One is a two headed coin (having head on both faces), another is a biased coin that comes up heads 75% of the time and third is an unbiased coin. One of the three coins is chosen at random and tossed, it shows heads, what is the probability that it is a two headed coin.

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To solve the problem, we will use Bayes' theorem. Let's denote the events as follows: - Let \( C_1 \) be the event that we picked the two-headed coin. - Let \( C_2 \) be the event that we picked the biased coin (75% heads). - Let \( C_3 \) be the event that we picked the unbiased coin (50% heads). - Let \( H \) be the event that we get heads when we toss the chosen coin. We need to find the probability that the coin chosen was the two-headed coin given that we observed heads, which can be expressed as \( P(C_1 | H) \). ### Step 1: Calculate the prior probabilities Since one of the three coins is chosen at random, the prior probabilities for each coin are: \[ P(C_1) = P(C_2) = P(C_3) = \frac{1}{3} \] ### Step 2: Calculate the likelihoods Next, we calculate the probability of getting heads given each coin: - For the two-headed coin \( C_1 \): \[ P(H | C_1) = 1 \] - For the biased coin \( C_2 \): \[ P(H | C_2) = 0.75 = \frac{3}{4} \] - For the unbiased coin \( C_3 \): \[ P(H | C_3) = 0.5 = \frac{1}{2} \] ### Step 3: Calculate the total probability of getting heads Using the law of total probability, we can find \( P(H) \): \[ P(H) = P(H | C_1) P(C_1) + P(H | C_2) P(C_2) + P(H | C_3) P(C_3) \] Substituting the values we have: \[ P(H) = 1 \cdot \frac{1}{3} + \frac{3}{4} \cdot \frac{1}{3} + \frac{1}{2} \cdot \frac{1}{3} \] Calculating each term: \[ P(H) = \frac{1}{3} + \frac{3}{12} + \frac{2}{12} \] \[ P(H) = \frac{1}{3} + \frac{5}{12} \] To add these fractions, we convert \( \frac{1}{3} \) to have a common denominator of 12: \[ \frac{1}{3} = \frac{4}{12} \] Thus, \[ P(H) = \frac{4}{12} + \frac{5}{12} = \frac{9}{12} = \frac{3}{4} \] ### Step 4: Apply Bayes' theorem Now we can use Bayes' theorem to find \( P(C_1 | H) \): \[ P(C_1 | H) = \frac{P(H | C_1) P(C_1)}{P(H)} \] Substituting the values: \[ P(C_1 | H) = \frac{1 \cdot \frac{1}{3}}{\frac{3}{4}} = \frac{\frac{1}{3}}{\frac{3}{4}} = \frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{4}{3} = \frac{4}{9} \] ### Final Answer Thus, the probability that the coin chosen is the two-headed coin given that we observed heads is: \[ \boxed{\frac{4}{9}} \]

To solve the problem, we will use Bayes' theorem. Let's denote the events as follows: - Let \( C_1 \) be the event that we picked the two-headed coin. - Let \( C_2 \) be the event that we picked the biased coin (75% heads). - Let \( C_3 \) be the event that we picked the unbiased coin (50% heads). - Let \( H \) be the event that we get heads when we toss the chosen coin. We need to find the probability that the coin chosen was the two-headed coin given that we observed heads, which can be expressed as \( P(C_1 | H) \). ...
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