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The chance of defective screws in three ...

The chance of defective screws in three boxes `A ,B ,Ca r e1//5,1//6,1//7,` respectively. A box is selected at random and a screw draw in from it at random is found to be defective. Then find the probability that it came from box `Adot`

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To solve the problem, we will use Bayes' theorem. We need to find the probability that a defective screw came from box A given that a defective screw was drawn. ### Step-by-step Solution: 1. **Define Events**: - Let \( E_1 \): Event that box A is selected. - Let \( E_2 \): Event that box B is selected. - Let \( E_3 \): Event that box C is selected. - Let \( A \): Event that a screw drawn is defective. 2. **Probabilities of Selecting Each Box**: Since a box is selected at random, the probabilities of selecting each box are: \[ P(E_1) = P(E_2) = P(E_3) = \frac{1}{3} \] 3. **Probabilities of Drawing a Defective Screw**: - Probability of drawing a defective screw from box A: \[ P(A | E_1) = \frac{1}{5} \] - Probability of drawing a defective screw from box B: \[ P(A | E_2) = \frac{1}{6} \] - Probability of drawing a defective screw from box C: \[ P(A | E_3) = \frac{1}{7} \] 4. **Total Probability of Drawing a Defective Screw**: We need to find \( P(A) \): \[ P(A) = P(E_1) \cdot P(A | E_1) + P(E_2) \cdot P(A | E_2) + P(E_3) \cdot P(A | E_3) \] Substituting the values: \[ P(A) = \frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{1}{5} + \frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{1}{6} + \frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{1}{7} \] \[ P(A) = \frac{1}{15} + \frac{1}{18} + \frac{1}{21} \] To add these fractions, we find a common denominator, which is 630: \[ P(A) = \frac{42}{630} + \frac{35}{630} + \frac{30}{630} = \frac{107}{630} \] 5. **Using Bayes' Theorem**: We want to find \( P(E_1 | A) \): \[ P(E_1 | A) = \frac{P(E_1) \cdot P(A | E_1)}{P(A)} \] Substituting the values: \[ P(E_1 | A) = \frac{\frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{1}{5}}{\frac{107}{630}} \] \[ P(E_1 | A) = \frac{\frac{1}{15}}{\frac{107}{630}} = \frac{630}{15 \cdot 107} = \frac{42}{107} \] ### Final Answer: The probability that the defective screw came from box A is: \[ \frac{42}{107} \]

To solve the problem, we will use Bayes' theorem. We need to find the probability that a defective screw came from box A given that a defective screw was drawn. ### Step-by-step Solution: 1. **Define Events**: - Let \( E_1 \): Event that box A is selected. - Let \( E_2 \): Event that box B is selected. - Let \( E_3 \): Event that box C is selected. ...
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