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A purse contains 2 six-sided dice. One i...

A purse contains 2 six-sided dice. One is normal fair die, while the other has two 1's, and two 5's. A die is picked up and rolled. Because of some secret magnetic attraction of the unfair die, there is `75%` chance of picking the unfair die and a `25%` chance of picking a fair die. The die is rolled and shows up the face 3. The probability that a fair die was picked up is

A

`1//7`

B

`1//4`

C

`1//6`

D

`1//24`

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The correct Answer is:
To solve the problem, we need to find the probability that a fair die was picked given that the die rolled a 3. We can use Bayes' theorem for this purpose. ### Step-by-Step Solution: 1. **Define the Events**: - Let \( N \) be the event that the die picked is a normal (fair) die. - Let \( M \) be the event that the die picked is the magnetic (unfair) die. - Let \( A \) be the event that the die shows a 3. 2. **Assign Probabilities**: - The probability of picking the normal die: \[ P(N) = 0.25 = \frac{1}{4} \] - The probability of picking the magnetic die: \[ P(M) = 0.75 = \frac{3}{4} \] 3. **Calculate Conditional Probabilities**: - The probability of rolling a 3 with the normal die: \[ P(A|N) = \frac{1}{6} \] - The probability of rolling a 3 with the magnetic die (which has two 3's): \[ P(A|M) = \frac{2}{6} = \frac{1}{3} \] 4. **Calculate Total Probability of Rolling a 3**: Using the law of total probability: \[ P(A) = P(A|N) \cdot P(N) + P(A|M) \cdot P(M) \] Substituting the values: \[ P(A) = \left(\frac{1}{6} \cdot \frac{1}{4}\right) + \left(\frac{1}{3} \cdot \frac{3}{4}\right) \] \[ P(A) = \frac{1}{24} + \frac{3}{12} \] Converting \(\frac{3}{12}\) to \(\frac{6}{24}\): \[ P(A) = \frac{1}{24} + \frac{6}{24} = \frac{7}{24} \] 5. **Apply Bayes' Theorem**: We want to find \( P(N|A) \): \[ P(N|A) = \frac{P(A|N) \cdot P(N)}{P(A)} \] Substituting the known values: \[ P(N|A) = \frac{\left(\frac{1}{6}\right) \cdot \left(\frac{1}{4}\right)}{\frac{7}{24}} \] \[ P(N|A) = \frac{\frac{1}{24}}{\frac{7}{24}} = \frac{1}{7} \] ### Final Answer: The probability that a fair die was picked given that the die rolled a 3 is: \[ \boxed{\frac{1}{7}} \]

To solve the problem, we need to find the probability that a fair die was picked given that the die rolled a 3. We can use Bayes' theorem for this purpose. ### Step-by-Step Solution: 1. **Define the Events**: - Let \( N \) be the event that the die picked is a normal (fair) die. - Let \( M \) be the event that the die picked is the magnetic (unfair) die. - Let \( A \) be the event that the die shows a 3. ...
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A purse contains 2 six-sided dice. One is a normal fair die, while the other has two 1s two 3s,and two 5s. A die is picked up and rolled. Because of some secret magnetic attraction of the unfair die, there is 75% chance of picking the unfair die and a 25% chance of picking a fair die. The dice is rolled and shows up the face 3. The probability that a fair die was picked up is (a) 1/7 (b) 1/4 (c) 1/6 (d) 1/24

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CENGAGE ENGLISH-PROBABILITY II-EXERCISE
  1. If Aa n dB each toss three coins. The probability that both get the sa...

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  2. A fair coin is tossed 100 times. The probability of getting tails 1, 3...

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  3. A fair die is thrown 20 times. The probability that on the 10th thr...

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  4. A speaks truth in 605 cases and B speaks truth in 70% cases. The proba...

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  5. The probability that a teacher will give an unannounced test during an...

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  6. There are two urns Aa n dB . Urn A contains 5 red, 3 blue and 2 white ...

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  7. A bag contains 20 coins. If the probability that bag contains exactly ...

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  8. A bag contains 3 red and 3 green balls and a person draws out 3 at ...

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  9. A bag contains 20 coins. If the probability that the bag contains e...

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  10. An urn contains three red balls and n white balls. Mr. A draws two bal...

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  11. A student can solve 2 out of 4 problems of mathematics, 3 out of 5 ...

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  12. An event X can take place in conjuction with any one of the mutually e...

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  13. An artillery target may be either at point I with probability 8/9 or a...

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  14. A bag contains some white and some black balls, all combinations of ...

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  15. A letter is known to have come either from LONDON or CLIFTON. On the ...

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  16. A doctor is called to see a sick child. The doctor knows (prior to the...

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  17. On a Saturday night, 20%of all drivers in U.S.A. are under the infl...

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  18. A purse contains 2 six-sided dice. One is normal fair die, while the o...

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  19. There are 3 bags which are known to contain 2 white and 3 black, 4 ...

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  20. A hat contains a number of cards with 30% white on both sides, 50% ...

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