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The probability that a bulb produced in a factory will fuse after 150 days of use in 0.05.
Find the probability that out of 5 such bulbs:
(ii) Not more than one will after 150 days of use.

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The correct Answer is:
To solve the problem, we need to find the probability that out of 5 bulbs, not more than one will fuse after 150 days of use, given that the probability of a bulb fusing is 0.05. ### Step-by-Step Solution: 1. **Identify the Parameters**: - Let \( n = 5 \) (the number of bulbs). - Let \( p = 0.05 \) (the probability that a bulb will fuse). - Let \( q = 1 - p = 0.95 \) (the probability that a bulb will not fuse). 2. **Define the Random Variable**: - Let \( X \) be the random variable representing the number of bulbs that fuse after 150 days of use. We want to find \( P(X \leq 1) \). 3. **Calculate \( P(X = 0) \)**: - The probability that none of the bulbs fuse can be calculated using the binomial probability formula: \[ P(X = 0) = \binom{n}{0} p^0 q^n = \binom{5}{0} (0.05)^0 (0.95)^5 \] - Simplifying this gives: \[ P(X = 0) = 1 \cdot 1 \cdot (0.95)^5 = (0.95)^5 \] 4. **Calculate \( P(X = 1) \)**: - The probability that exactly one bulb fuses is given by: \[ P(X = 1) = \binom{n}{1} p^1 q^{n-1} = \binom{5}{1} (0.05)^1 (0.95)^4 \] - Simplifying this gives: \[ P(X = 1) = 5 \cdot 0.05 \cdot (0.95)^4 \] 5. **Combine the Probabilities**: - Now, we can find \( P(X \leq 1) \): \[ P(X \leq 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) = (0.95)^5 + 5 \cdot 0.05 \cdot (0.95)^4 \] 6. **Calculate the Values**: - First, calculate \( (0.95)^5 \): \[ (0.95)^5 \approx 0.77378 \] - Next, calculate \( 5 \cdot 0.05 \cdot (0.95)^4 \): \[ (0.95)^4 \approx 0.81451 \quad \Rightarrow \quad 5 \cdot 0.05 \cdot 0.81451 \approx 0.20363 \] 7. **Final Calculation**: - Now add the two probabilities: \[ P(X \leq 1) \approx 0.77378 + 0.20363 \approx 0.97741 \] ### Final Answer: The probability that out of 5 bulbs, not more than one will fuse after 150 days of use is approximately **0.97741**.
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