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It is known that, in a certain area of a...

It is known that, in a certain area of a large city, the average number of rats per bungalow is five. Assuming that the number of rats follows Poisson distribution, find the probability that a randomly selected bungalow has
i) exactly 5 rats (ii) more than 5 rats (iii) between 5 and 7 rats, inclusive.
Given `e^(-5) =0.0067`.

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To solve the problem, we will use the Poisson distribution formula, which is given by: \[ P(X = k) = \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^k}{k!} \] where \( \lambda \) is the average rate (mean), \( k \) is the number of occurrences, and \( e \) is Euler's number (approximately equal to 2.71828). Given that the average number of rats per bungalow is \( \lambda = 5 \) and \( e^{-5} = 0.0067 \), we will calculate the required probabilities step by step. ### i) Probability of exactly 5 rats To find the probability of having exactly 5 rats, we set \( k = 5 \): \[ P(X = 5) = \frac{e^{-5} \cdot 5^5}{5!} \] Calculating \( 5^5 \) and \( 5! \): - \( 5^5 = 3125 \) - \( 5! = 120 \) Now substituting these values into the formula: \[ P(X = 5) = 0.0067 \cdot \frac{3125}{120} \] Calculating the fraction: \[ \frac{3125}{120} = 26.04167 \] Now, substituting back: \[ P(X = 5) = 0.0067 \cdot 26.04167 \approx 0.174 \] ### ii) Probability of more than 5 rats To find the probability of having more than 5 rats, we can use the complement rule: \[ P(X > 5) = 1 - P(X \leq 5) \] First, we need to calculate \( P(X \leq 5) \): \[ P(X \leq 5) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5) \] Calculating each term: 1. \( P(X = 0) = \frac{e^{-5} \cdot 5^0}{0!} = 0.0067 \cdot 1 = 0.0067 \) 2. \( P(X = 1) = \frac{e^{-5} \cdot 5^1}{1!} = 0.0067 \cdot 5 = 0.0335 \) 3. \( P(X = 2) = \frac{e^{-5} \cdot 5^2}{2!} = 0.0067 \cdot \frac{25}{2} = 0.08375 \) 4. \( P(X = 3) = \frac{e^{-5} \cdot 5^3}{3!} = 0.0067 \cdot \frac{125}{6} \approx 0.13958 \) 5. \( P(X = 4) = \frac{e^{-5} \cdot 5^4}{4!} = 0.0067 \cdot \frac{625}{24} \approx 0.174 \) (already calculated) 6. \( P(X = 5) = 0.174 \) Now summing these probabilities: \[ P(X \leq 5) = 0.0067 + 0.0335 + 0.08375 + 0.13958 + 0.174 \approx 0.437 \] Now, we can find \( P(X > 5) \): \[ P(X > 5) = 1 - P(X \leq 5) = 1 - 0.437 \approx 0.563 \] ### iii) Probability of between 5 and 7 rats (inclusive) To find the probability of having between 5 and 7 rats, we calculate: \[ P(5 \leq X \leq 7) = P(X = 5) + P(X = 6) + P(X = 7) \] We already have \( P(X = 5) = 0.174 \). Now calculating \( P(X = 6) \) and \( P(X = 7) \): 1. \( P(X = 6) = \frac{e^{-5} \cdot 5^6}{6!} = 0.0067 \cdot \frac{15625}{720} \approx 0.145 \) 2. \( P(X = 7) = \frac{e^{-5} \cdot 5^7}{7!} = 0.0067 \cdot \frac{78125}{5040} \approx 0.103 \) Now summing these probabilities: \[ P(5 \leq X \leq 7) = 0.174 + 0.145 + 0.103 \approx 0.422 \] ### Final Answers - i) \( P(X = 5) \approx 0.174 \) - ii) \( P(X > 5) \approx 0.563 \) - iii) \( P(5 \leq X \leq 7) \approx 0.422 \)
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