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A bag contains 3 black and 4 white balls...

A bag contains 3 black and 4 white balls. Second bag contains 5 black and 6 white balls. A ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and it is found to be black. What is the probability that this ball is drawn from second bag?

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To solve the problem, we will use Bayes' theorem to find the probability that the black ball was drawn from the second bag, given that a black ball was drawn. ### Step-by-Step Solution: 1. **Define Events**: - Let \( B_1 \) be the event that a ball is drawn from Bag 1. - Let \( B_2 \) be the event that a ball is drawn from Bag 2. - Let \( A \) be the event that a black ball is drawn. 2. **Calculate the probabilities of choosing each bag**: Since both bags are equally likely to be chosen, we have: \[ P(B_1) = P(B_2) = \frac{1}{2} \] 3. **Calculate the probability of drawing a black ball from each bag**: - For Bag 1, which contains 3 black and 4 white balls (total 7 balls): \[ P(A | B_1) = \frac{3}{7} \] - For Bag 2, which contains 5 black and 6 white balls (total 11 balls): \[ P(A | B_2) = \frac{5}{11} \] 4. **Calculate the total probability of drawing a black ball**: Using the law of total probability: \[ P(A) = P(A | B_1) \cdot P(B_1) + P(A | B_2) \cdot P(B_2) \] Substituting the values: \[ P(A) = \left(\frac{3}{7} \cdot \frac{1}{2}\right) + \left(\frac{5}{11} \cdot \frac{1}{2}\right) \] \[ P(A) = \frac{3}{14} + \frac{5}{22} \] To add these fractions, we need a common denominator, which is 77: \[ P(A) = \frac{3 \cdot 11}{77} + \frac{5 \cdot 7}{77} = \frac{33 + 35}{77} = \frac{68}{77} \] 5. **Calculate the probability that the black ball was drawn from Bag 2**: Using Bayes' theorem: \[ P(B_2 | A) = \frac{P(A | B_2) \cdot P(B_2)}{P(A)} \] Substituting the known values: \[ P(B_2 | A) = \frac{\left(\frac{5}{11}\right) \cdot \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)}{\frac{68}{77}} \] Simplifying: \[ P(B_2 | A) = \frac{\frac{5}{22}}{\frac{68}{77}} = \frac{5}{22} \cdot \frac{77}{68} = \frac{5 \cdot 77}{22 \cdot 68} \] Reducing: \[ = \frac{385}{1496} \] Simplifying further: \[ = \frac{35}{136} \] ### Final Answer: The probability that the black ball was drawn from the second bag is: \[ \frac{35}{136} \]

To solve the problem, we will use Bayes' theorem to find the probability that the black ball was drawn from the second bag, given that a black ball was drawn. ### Step-by-Step Solution: 1. **Define Events**: - Let \( B_1 \) be the event that a ball is drawn from Bag 1. - Let \( B_2 \) be the event that a ball is drawn from Bag 2. - Let \( A \) be the event that a black ball is drawn. ...
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