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In answering a question on a multiple choice test a student either knows the answer or guesses. Let the probability that he knows the answer is `3/4` and probability that he guesses is `1/4`. Assuming that a student who guesses the answer and given correct answer is `1/4`. What is the probability that student knows the answer given that he answered it correctly?

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To solve the problem, we will use Bayes' theorem. We need to find the probability that the student knows the answer given that he answered it correctly, denoted as \( P(A|C) \). ### Step-by-step Solution: 1. **Define Events:** - Let \( A \): the event that the student knows the answer. - Let \( B \): the event that the student guesses the answer. - Let \( C \): the event that the student answers correctly. 2. **Given Probabilities:** - \( P(A) = \frac{3}{4} \) (the probability that the student knows the answer). - \( P(B) = \frac{1}{4} \) (the probability that the student guesses the answer). - \( P(C|B) = \frac{1}{4} \) (the probability of answering correctly given that the student guesses). - \( P(C|A) = 1 \) (the probability of answering correctly given that the student knows the answer). 3. **Apply Bayes' Theorem:** Bayes' theorem states: \[ P(A|C) = \frac{P(C|A) \cdot P(A)}{P(C)} \] We need to find \( P(C) \) first. 4. **Calculate \( P(C) \):** Using the law of total probability: \[ P(C) = P(C|A) \cdot P(A) + P(C|B) \cdot P(B) \] Substitute the known values: \[ P(C) = (1) \cdot \left(\frac{3}{4}\right) + \left(\frac{1}{4}\right) \cdot \left(\frac{1}{4}\right) \] \[ P(C) = \frac{3}{4} + \frac{1}{16} \] To add these fractions, find a common denominator (16): \[ P(C) = \frac{3 \cdot 4}{16} + \frac{1}{16} = \frac{12 + 1}{16} = \frac{13}{16} \] 5. **Substitute Back into Bayes' Theorem:** Now substitute \( P(C) \) back into the equation for \( P(A|C) \): \[ P(A|C) = \frac{P(C|A) \cdot P(A)}{P(C)} = \frac{1 \cdot \frac{3}{4}}{\frac{13}{16}} \] Simplifying this: \[ P(A|C) = \frac{\frac{3}{4}}{\frac{13}{16}} = \frac{3}{4} \cdot \frac{16}{13} = \frac{3 \cdot 16}{4 \cdot 13} = \frac{48}{52} = \frac{12}{13} \] ### Final Answer: Thus, the probability that the student knows the answer given that he answered it correctly is: \[ \boxed{\frac{12}{13}} \]

To solve the problem, we will use Bayes' theorem. We need to find the probability that the student knows the answer given that he answered it correctly, denoted as \( P(A|C) \). ### Step-by-step Solution: 1. **Define Events:** - Let \( A \): the event that the student knows the answer. - Let \( B \): the event that the student guesses the answer. - Let \( C \): the event that the student answers correctly. ...
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