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Mr. Dupont is a professional tea taster....

Mr. Dupont is a professional tea taster. When given a high grade tea, he will identify it with probability `0.9` correctly as high grade and will mistake it for a low grade tea with probability `0.1.` When given a low grade tea, he will identify it with probability `0.8` correctly as low grade tea and will mistake it for a high grade tea with probability `0.2.` Suppose that Mr. Dupont is given ten unlabelled cups of tea, three with high grade and sevenwith low grade tea. He randomly picks a cup, tries the tea and solemnly says high grade tea. Find the probability that the tea he tasted was low grade tea.

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