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Dice A has 4 red and 2 white faces where...

Dice A has 4 red and 2 white faces whereas dice B has 3 red and 3 white faces. A coin is tossed once, if it falls head then the game continues by throwing the dice A and if it falls tail then the dice B is to be used. If red turns up at first 3 throws, then the probability that dice A is being used is

A

`(7)/(37)`

B

`(64)/(91)`

C

`(9)/(41)`

D

`(27)/(35)`

Text Solution

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The correct Answer is:
To solve the problem, we will use Bayes' theorem to find the probability that dice A is being used given that red has turned up in the first three throws. ### Step-by-Step Solution: 1. **Define Events**: - Let \( A \) be the event that dice A is used. - Let \( B \) be the event that dice B is used. - Let \( R \) be the event that red turns up in the first three throws. 2. **Calculate Prior Probabilities**: - The probability of using dice A: \[ P(A) = \frac{1}{2} \] - The probability of using dice B: \[ P(B) = \frac{1}{2} \] 3. **Calculate Conditional Probabilities**: - For dice A, the probability of rolling red on one throw: \[ P(R \mid A) = \frac{4}{6} = \frac{2}{3} \] - For dice B, the probability of rolling red on one throw: \[ P(R \mid B) = \frac{3}{6} = \frac{1}{2} \] 4. **Calculate Probability of Getting Red in Three Throws**: - The probability of getting red in three consecutive throws with dice A: \[ P(R \mid A)^{3} = \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^{3} = \frac{8}{27} \] - The probability of getting red in three consecutive throws with dice B: \[ P(R \mid B)^{3} = \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{3} = \frac{1}{8} \] 5. **Calculate Total Probability of R**: - Using the law of total probability: \[ P(R) = P(R \mid A) P(A) + P(R \mid B) P(B) \] - Substituting the values: \[ P(R) = \left(\frac{8}{27} \cdot \frac{1}{2}\right) + \left(\frac{1}{8} \cdot \frac{1}{2}\right) \] - Simplifying: \[ P(R) = \frac{8}{54} + \frac{1}{16} \] - Finding a common denominator (which is 432): \[ P(R) = \frac{64}{432} + \frac{27}{432} = \frac{91}{432} \] 6. **Apply Bayes' Theorem**: - We want to find \( P(A \mid R) \): \[ P(A \mid R) = \frac{P(R \mid A) P(A)}{P(R)} \] - Substituting the values: \[ P(A \mid R) = \frac{\left(\frac{8}{27}\right) \cdot \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)}{\frac{91}{432}} \] - Simplifying: \[ P(A \mid R) = \frac{\frac{8}{54}}{\frac{91}{432}} = \frac{8 \cdot 432}{54 \cdot 91} = \frac{3456}{4902} \] - Reducing the fraction: \[ P(A \mid R) = \frac{64}{91} \] ### Final Answer: The probability that dice A is being used given that red has turned up in the first three throws is: \[ \boxed{\frac{64}{91}} \]
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