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Supposing that it is 9 to 7 against a pe...

Supposing that it is 9 to 7 against a person A who is now 35 years of age living till he is 65, and 3 to 2 against a person B now 45 till he is 75, find the chance that one at least of these persons will be alive 30 years hence.

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To solve the problem step by step, we will first determine the probabilities of both individuals A and B being alive after 30 years, and then use these probabilities to find the chance that at least one of them will be alive. ### Step 1: Determine the probability of person A being alive in 30 years - The odds against person A living until 65 are given as 9 to 7. This means: \[ \text{Odds against} = \frac{P(A \text{ not alive})}{P(A \text{ alive})} = \frac{9}{7} \] - Let \( P(A \text{ alive}) = p_A \) and \( P(A \text{ not alive}) = 1 - p_A \). - From the odds, we have: \[ \frac{1 - p_A}{p_A} = \frac{9}{7} \] - Cross-multiplying gives: \[ 7(1 - p_A) = 9p_A \] \[ 7 - 7p_A = 9p_A \] \[ 7 = 16p_A \] \[ p_A = \frac{7}{16} \] ### Step 2: Determine the probability of person B being alive in 30 years - The odds against person B living until 75 are given as 3 to 2. This means: \[ \text{Odds against} = \frac{P(B \text{ not alive})}{P(B \text{ alive})} = \frac{3}{2} \] - Let \( P(B \text{ alive}) = p_B \) and \( P(B \text{ not alive}) = 1 - p_B \). - From the odds, we have: \[ \frac{1 - p_B}{p_B} = \frac{3}{2} \] - Cross-multiplying gives: \[ 2(1 - p_B) = 3p_B \] \[ 2 - 2p_B = 3p_B \] \[ 2 = 5p_B \] \[ p_B = \frac{2}{5} \] ### Step 3: Calculate the probability that at least one of them is alive - We need to find the probability that at least one of them is alive, which can be calculated using the complement: \[ P(\text{at least one alive}) = 1 - P(A \text{ not alive}) \cdot P(B \text{ not alive}) \] - We already have: \[ P(A \text{ not alive}) = 1 - p_A = 1 - \frac{7}{16} = \frac{9}{16} \] \[ P(B \text{ not alive}) = 1 - p_B = 1 - \frac{2}{5} = \frac{3}{5} \] - Now we can compute: \[ P(A \text{ not alive}) \cdot P(B \text{ not alive}) = \frac{9}{16} \cdot \frac{3}{5} = \frac{27}{80} \] - Therefore: \[ P(\text{at least one alive}) = 1 - \frac{27}{80} = \frac{80 - 27}{80} = \frac{53}{80} \] ### Final Answer The probability that at least one of the persons A or B will be alive in 30 years is: \[ \frac{53}{80} \]
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