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A' writes a letter to his friend B and o...

A' writes a letter to his friend B and oes not receive a reply, it is known that one out of 'n' letters does not reach it's destination. What is the probability that 'B' didn't receive the letter ? It is certain that 'B' would have replied , if he received the letter.

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To solve the problem, we need to determine the probability that 'B' did not receive the letter given that 'A' did not receive a reply. We know that 1 out of 'n' letters does not reach its destination. ### Step-by-Step Solution: 1. **Define Events**: - Let \( E \) be the event that 'B' received the letter. - Let \( R \) be the event that 'A' received a reply from 'B'. 2. **Calculate Probability of Event \( E \)**: - Since 1 out of \( n \) letters does not reach its destination, the probability that 'B' received the letter is: \[ P(E) = \frac{n-1}{n} \] - Therefore, the probability that 'B' did not receive the letter (complement of \( E \)) is: \[ P(E') = 1 - P(E) = \frac{1}{n} \] 3. **Conditional Probability of Event \( R \) given \( E \)**: - If 'B' received the letter, he would certainly reply. Hence: \[ P(R|E) = 1 \] - If 'B' did not receive the letter, he cannot reply, so: \[ P(R|E') = 0 \] 4. **Calculate Probability of Event \( R \)**: - Using the law of total probability: \[ P(R) = P(R|E) \cdot P(E) + P(R|E') \cdot P(E') \] - Substituting the known values: \[ P(R) = (1) \cdot \left(\frac{n-1}{n}\right) + (0) \cdot \left(\frac{1}{n}\right) = \frac{n-1}{n} \] 5. **Find the Required Probability**: - We want to find the probability that 'B' did not receive the letter given that 'A' did not receive a reply: \[ P(E'|R') = \frac{P(E' \cap R')}{P(R')} \] - First, calculate \( P(R') \): \[ P(R') = 1 - P(R) = 1 - \frac{n-1}{n} = \frac{1}{n} \] - Now, calculate \( P(E' \cap R') \): - Since if 'B' did not receive the letter, 'A' cannot receive a reply: \[ P(E' \cap R') = P(E') = \frac{1}{n} \] 6. **Final Calculation**: - Now substituting back into the equation: \[ P(E'|R') = \frac{P(E' \cap R')}{P(R')} = \frac{\frac{1}{n}}{\frac{1}{n}} = 1 \] ### Conclusion: The probability that 'B' did not receive the letter given that 'A' did not receive a reply is \( 1 \).
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