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A bag 'A' contains 2 white and 3 red bal...

A bag 'A' contains 2 white and 3 red balls, a beg 'B' contains 4 white and 5 black balls. A bag is selected randomly and a ball is drawn from it. Drawn ball is observed to be white. Find the probability that bag 'B' was selected.

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To solve the problem step by step, we will use Bayes' theorem to find the probability that bag B was selected given that a white ball was drawn. ### Step 1: Define the Events Let: - \( A \): Event that bag A is selected. - \( B \): Event that bag B is selected. - \( W \): Event that a white ball is drawn. ### Step 2: Calculate the Prior Probabilities Since a bag is selected randomly: - \( P(A) = \frac{1}{2} \) - \( P(B) = \frac{1}{2} \) ### Step 3: Calculate the Probability of Drawing a White Ball from Each Bag - From bag A, there are 2 white balls and 3 red balls, making a total of 5 balls. Thus, the probability of drawing a white ball from bag A is: \[ P(W|A) = \frac{2}{5} \] - From bag B, there are 4 white balls and 5 black balls, making a total of 9 balls. Thus, the probability of drawing a white ball from bag B is: \[ P(W|B) = \frac{4}{9} \] ### Step 4: Calculate the Total Probability of Drawing a White Ball Using the law of total probability: \[ P(W) = P(W|A)P(A) + P(W|B)P(B) \] Substituting the values: \[ P(W) = \left(\frac{2}{5} \cdot \frac{1}{2}\right) + \left(\frac{4}{9} \cdot \frac{1}{2}\right) \] Calculating each term: \[ P(W) = \frac{2}{10} + \frac{4}{18} \] Finding a common denominator (90): \[ P(W) = \frac{18}{90} + \frac{20}{90} = \frac{38}{90} = \frac{19}{45} \] ### Step 5: Calculate the Probability that Bag B was Selected Given a White Ball was Drawn Using Bayes' theorem: \[ P(B|W) = \frac{P(W|B)P(B)}{P(W)} \] Substituting the values: \[ P(B|W) = \frac{\left(\frac{4}{9}\right) \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)}{\frac{19}{45}} \] Calculating the numerator: \[ P(B|W) = \frac{\frac{4}{18}}{\frac{19}{45}} = \frac{4 \cdot 45}{18 \cdot 19} \] Simplifying: \[ P(B|W) = \frac{180}{342} = \frac{10}{19} \] ### Final Answer The probability that bag B was selected given that a white ball was drawn is: \[ \boxed{\frac{10}{19}} \]
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