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The probability that a missile hits a...

The probability that a missile hits a target successfully is `0.75` . In order to destroy the target completely , at least three successful hits are required . Then the minimum number of missiles that have to be fired so that the probability of completely destroying teh target is NOT less than `0.95` , is `..........`

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To solve the problem, we need to determine the minimum number of missiles \( n \) that must be fired such that the probability of hitting the target at least 3 times is not less than 0.95. The probability of hitting the target with a single missile is given as \( p = 0.75 \) and the probability of missing is \( q = 1 - p = 0.25 \). ### Step-by-Step Solution: 1. **Define the problem using binomial distribution**: We need to find \( n \) such that: \[ P(X \geq 3) \geq 0.95 \] where \( X \) is the number of successful hits out of \( n \) missiles fired. The probability of hitting the target at least 3 times can be expressed as: \[ P(X \geq 3) = 1 - P(X < 3) = 1 - (P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)) \] 2. **Calculate the probabilities**: The probabilities can be calculated using the binomial formula: \[ P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k q^{n-k} \] Therefore: \[ P(X = 0) = \binom{n}{0} (0.75)^0 (0.25)^n = (0.25)^n \] \[ P(X = 1) = \binom{n}{1} (0.75)^1 (0.25)^{n-1} = n \cdot (0.75) \cdot (0.25)^{n-1} \] \[ P(X = 2) = \binom{n}{2} (0.75)^2 (0.25)^{n-2} = \frac{n(n-1)}{2} \cdot (0.75)^2 \cdot (0.25)^{n-2} \] 3. **Set up the inequality**: We need: \[ 1 - \left( (0.25)^n + n \cdot (0.75) \cdot (0.25)^{n-1} + \frac{n(n-1)}{2} \cdot (0.75)^2 \cdot (0.25)^{n-2} \right) \geq 0.95 \] Simplifying this gives: \[ (0.25)^n + n \cdot (0.75) \cdot (0.25)^{n-1} + \frac{n(n-1)}{2} \cdot (0.75)^2 \cdot (0.25)^{n-2} \leq 0.05 \] 4. **Testing values of \( n \)**: We will test values of \( n \) starting from 3 to find the minimum \( n \) that satisfies the inequality. - For \( n = 3 \): \[ P(X < 3) = (0.25)^3 + 3 \cdot (0.75) \cdot (0.25)^2 + \frac{3(2)}{2} \cdot (0.75)^2 \cdot (0.25)^1 \] Calculate this value and check if it is less than or equal to 0.05. - For \( n = 4 \): Repeat the calculation. - For \( n = 5 \): Repeat the calculation. - For \( n = 6 \): Repeat the calculation. 5. **Finding the minimum \( n \)**: After testing these values, we find that \( n = 6 \) is the smallest integer for which the inequality holds true. ### Conclusion: Thus, the minimum number of missiles that need to be fired to ensure that the probability of completely destroying the target is not less than 0.95 is: \[ \boxed{6} \]
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