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A box contains 4 white and 3 black balls...

A box contains `4` white and `3` black balls. Another box contains `3` white and `4` black balls. A die is thrown. If it exhibits a number greater than 3`, the ball is drawn from the first box. Otherwise, a ball is drawn from the second box. A ball drawn is found to be black. The probability that it has been drawn from the second box is

A

`3//7`

B

`4//7`

C

`6//17`

D

`8//17`

Text Solution

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The correct Answer is:
To solve the problem, we will use Bayes' theorem to find the probability that the black ball drawn came from the second box given that a black ball was drawn. ### Step-by-Step Solution: 1. **Define Events:** - Let \( A_1 \): The event that the ball is drawn from the first box. - Let \( A_2 \): The event that the ball is drawn from the second box. - Let \( B \): The event that a black ball is drawn. 2. **Determine Probabilities of Drawing from Each Box:** - The die can show numbers greater than 3 (4, 5, 6) or less than or equal to 3 (1, 2, 3). - Probability of rolling a number greater than 3 (i.e., 4, 5, or 6): \[ P(A_1) = \frac{3}{6} = \frac{1}{2} \] - Probability of rolling a number less than or equal to 3 (i.e., 1, 2, or 3): \[ P(A_2) = \frac{3}{6} = \frac{1}{2} \] 3. **Determine Probabilities of Drawing a Black Ball from Each Box:** - From the first box (4 white and 3 black): \[ P(B|A_1) = \frac{3}{7} \] - From the second box (3 white and 4 black): \[ P(B|A_2) = \frac{4}{7} \] 4. **Use Total Probability to Find \( P(B) \):** - The total probability of drawing a black ball: \[ P(B) = P(B|A_1)P(A_1) + P(B|A_2)P(A_2) \] - Substitute the values: \[ P(B) = \left(\frac{3}{7} \cdot \frac{1}{2}\right) + \left(\frac{4}{7} \cdot \frac{1}{2}\right) \] \[ P(B) = \frac{3}{14} + \frac{4}{14} = \frac{7}{14} = \frac{1}{2} \] 5. **Apply Bayes' Theorem to Find \( P(A_2|B) \):** - We want to find the probability that the ball was drawn from the second box given that a black ball was drawn: \[ P(A_2|B) = \frac{P(B|A_2)P(A_2)}{P(B)} \] - Substitute the values: \[ P(A_2|B) = \frac{\left(\frac{4}{7}\right) \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)}{\frac{1}{2}} \] - Simplifying gives: \[ P(A_2|B) = \frac{4}{7} \] ### Final Answer: The probability that the black ball drawn came from the second box is \( \frac{4}{7} \).

To solve the problem, we will use Bayes' theorem to find the probability that the black ball drawn came from the second box given that a black ball was drawn. ### Step-by-Step Solution: 1. **Define Events:** - Let \( A_1 \): The event that the ball is drawn from the first box. - Let \( A_2 \): The event that the ball is drawn from the second box. - Let \( B \): The event that a black ball is drawn. ...
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