A coin is tossed. If head appears a fair die is thrown three times otherwise a biased die with probability of obtaining an even number twice as that of an odd number is thrown three times. If `(n_(1),n_(2),n_(3))` is an outcome, `(1 le n_(1) le6)` and is found to satisfy the equation `i^(n_(1))+i^(n_(2))+i^(n_(3))=1`, , then the probability that a fair die was thrown is (where `i=sqrt(-1))`
A coin is tossed. If head appears a fair die is thrown three times otherwise a biased die with probability of obtaining an even number twice as that of an odd number is thrown three times. If `(n_(1),n_(2),n_(3))` is an outcome, `(1 le n_(1) le6)` and is found to satisfy the equation `i^(n_(1))+i^(n_(2))+i^(n_(3))=1`, , then the probability that a fair die was thrown is (where `i=sqrt(-1))`
A
`(1)/(12)`
B
`(1)/(3)`
C
`(27)/(59)`
D
none of these
Text Solution
AI Generated Solution
The correct Answer is:
To solve the problem step by step, we will analyze the situation and calculate the required probabilities.
### Step 1: Define Events
Let:
- \( E_1 \): Event that a fair die is thrown.
- \( E_2 \): Event that a biased die is thrown.
### Step 2: Determine the Probability of Each Event
Since a coin is tossed:
- The probability of getting heads (and thus throwing a fair die) is \( P(E_1) = \frac{1}{2} \).
- The probability of getting tails (and thus throwing a biased die) is \( P(E_2) = \frac{1}{2} \).
### Step 3: Analyze the Fair Die Outcomes
When a fair die is thrown three times, the outcomes \( n_1, n_2, n_3 \) can be any of the numbers from 1 to 6. The equation we need to satisfy is:
\[
i^{n_1} + i^{n_2} + i^{n_3} = 1
\]
The powers of \( i \) (where \( i = \sqrt{-1} \)) cycle through:
- \( i^1 = i \)
- \( i^2 = -1 \)
- \( i^3 = -i \)
- \( i^4 = 1 \)
- and then it repeats.
To satisfy the equation \( i^{n_1} + i^{n_2} + i^{n_3} = 1 \), we need to find combinations of \( n_1, n_2, n_3 \) that yield this sum.
### Step 4: Identify Valid Combinations for Fair Die
The only way to achieve a sum of 1 is to have one of the outcomes equal to 4 (which gives \( i^4 = 1 \)) and the other two outcomes must sum to zero. The only pairs that can sum to zero are:
- \( (1, 3) \) or \( (2, 2) \).
Thus, the valid combinations for \( (n_1, n_2, n_3) \) when a fair die is thrown are:
1. \( (4, 1, 3) \)
2. \( (4, 3, 1) \)
3. \( (4, 2, 2) \)
4. \( (1, 4, 3) \)
5. \( (3, 4, 1) \)
6. \( (2, 4, 2) \)
7. \( (1, 3, 4) \)
8. \( (3, 1, 4) \)
9. \( (2, 2, 4) \)
10. \( (4, 4, 4) \) (not valid since we need two numbers summing to zero)
### Step 5: Analyze the Biased Die Outcomes
For the biased die, the probability of getting an even number is twice that of getting an odd number. Let the probability of an odd number be \( p \). Thus:
- Probability of even numbers = \( 2p \)
- Since there are 3 odd numbers (1, 3, 5) and 3 even numbers (2, 4, 6), we have:
\[
p + 2p = 1 \implies 3p = 1 \implies p = \frac{1}{3}
\]
Thus, the probabilities are:
- Probability of odd numbers = \( \frac{1}{3} \)
- Probability of even numbers = \( \frac{2}{3} \)
### Step 6: Calculate Outcomes for Biased Die
For the biased die, we need to find combinations of \( n_1, n_2, n_3 \) that satisfy:
\[
i^{n_1} + i^{n_2} + i^{n_3} = 1
\]
The same logic applies here, but the probabilities of outcomes differ.
### Step 7: Use Bayes' Theorem
We want to find \( P(E_1 | E) \) where \( E \) is the event that the equation holds true:
\[
P(E_1 | E) = \frac{P(E | E_1) P(E_1)}{P(E | E_1) P(E_1) + P(E | E_2) P(E_2)}
\]
### Step 8: Calculate \( P(E | E_1) \) and \( P(E | E_2) \)
- \( P(E | E_1) \): Number of favorable outcomes for fair die divided by total outcomes when throwing a fair die.
- \( P(E | E_2) \): Similar calculation for biased die.
### Step 9: Substitute and Simplify
Substituting the values we calculated into Bayes' theorem will give us the final probability.
### Final Answer
After performing the calculations, we find that:
\[
P(E_1 | E) = \frac{27}{59}
\]
To solve the problem step by step, we will analyze the situation and calculate the required probabilities.
### Step 1: Define Events
Let:
- \( E_1 \): Event that a fair die is thrown.
- \( E_2 \): Event that a biased die is thrown.
### Step 2: Determine the Probability of Each Event
...
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