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The probability that a bulb produced by a factory will fuse after 160 days of use is 0.06. Find the probability that out of 5 such bulbs at the most one bulb will fuse after 160 days of use.

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To solve the problem, we need to find the probability that at most one bulb will fuse out of five bulbs, given that the probability of a bulb fusing after 160 days is 0.06. ### Step-by-step Solution: 1. **Define the probabilities**: - Let \( p = 0.06 \) (the probability that a bulb will fuse). - Let \( q = 1 - p = 1 - 0.06 = 0.94 \) (the probability that a bulb will not fuse). 2. **Identify the scenario**: - We are looking for the probability that at most one bulb fuses out of five. This can be expressed as: \[ P(X \leq 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) \] - Here, \( X \) is the random variable representing the number of bulbs that fuse. 3. **Use the binomial probability formula**: - The probability of exactly \( r \) successes (bulbs fusing) in \( n \) trials (bulbs) is given by: \[ P(X = r) = \binom{n}{r} p^r q^{n-r} \] - In our case, \( n = 5 \), \( p = 0.06 \), and \( q = 0.94 \). 4. **Calculate \( P(X = 0) \)**: - For \( r = 0 \): \[ P(X = 0) = \binom{5}{0} (0.06)^0 (0.94)^5 = 1 \cdot 1 \cdot (0.94)^5 \] - Calculate \( (0.94)^5 \): \[ (0.94)^5 \approx 0.7351 \] - Thus, \( P(X = 0) \approx 0.7351 \). 5. **Calculate \( P(X = 1) \)**: - For \( r = 1 \): \[ P(X = 1) = \binom{5}{1} (0.06)^1 (0.94)^4 = 5 \cdot (0.06) \cdot (0.94)^4 \] - Calculate \( (0.94)^4 \): \[ (0.94)^4 \approx 0.7820 \] - Thus, \[ P(X = 1) = 5 \cdot 0.06 \cdot 0.7820 \approx 5 \cdot 0.04692 \approx 0.2346 \] 6. **Combine the probabilities**: - Now, we can find \( P(X \leq 1) \): \[ P(X \leq 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) \approx 0.7351 + 0.2346 \approx 0.9697 \] ### Final Answer: The probability that at most one bulb will fuse after 160 days of use is approximately \( 0.9697 \).
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